Bernanke Speaks...Uncle Sam Throws Another Treasury Auction(s)…..

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke will have two speaking performances this week starting with his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House Financial Services on Wednesday and then he will he will testify in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. While I don’t think the message from the two testimonies will differ that much, the market will be listening as to whether the Federal Reserve will continue their current position of keeping rates at current levels for an “extended period” of time. If Bernanke reiterates their commitment to keep rates low and the outlook on inflation seems to be in check for at least the next 12 months, look for rates to move marginally to lower levels. After last week’s rise in rates...any relief would be welcomed!!! In other news, Uncle Sam is throwing another HUGE treasury auction this week. Over $132B in bonds and notes will be auctioned this week starting today with $8B in 30 year inflation indexed bonds. $44B in 2 year notes will be auction tomorrow which should be received well. Wednesday Uncle Sam will auction $42B in 5year notes. Again, this auction is expected to be received well however...if this is not the case it will tee the ball up for a bad auction on Thursday for the $32B in 7 year notes which I believe is the “biggie” of this week's auction party. A poor showing at the 7 year auction will move rates notably higher. Keep your eyes on this auction...we need a good showing here to set the tone for rates for the next several weeks.